21st March

No hasty conclusions, please

The article warns against the possible misinterpretation of deflationary trend and the consequences of it on the investment and welfare prospects in the country.

As we saw WPI standing at 0.44% in the first week of March compared to 2.43% in the earlier week, it is very evident that soon we might see a deflationary trend. But a major reason for this is not the fall in prices but the higher base taken for the same week in the previous year. Inflation in the same week for last year was 7.78% and it reached close to 13% till August which is the reason why deflationary trend is evident in coming weeks. But if we look at CPI which reflects the consumer end prices, it is still in double digits i.e. 10.45% in January. Incorrect reading of numbers, especially deflation, can have serious consequences on policy response. Perception of deflation actually leads to demand shrinking as people hold back their spending in anticipation of further fall in prices. This reduces demand as well as overall economic activity. 

It ultimately leads to shrinking profits for the companies which in turn lead to layoffs and rising unemployment. 

Churning within BJP

The article talks about the recent churning that needs to be undertaken in the BJP to decide the second lead of leadership for the party after Advani.

BJP has been traditionally seen as a party with strong and united top leadership with hardly any clashes. However, the recent spat between Arun Jaitly and Rajnath Singh comes as a surprise. The issue is not new to BJP as Jaitly is unhappy over increasing dominance of “wheeler dealers” in party’s strategic decision making process. Previously Uma Bharti and many other Hindutva puritans in the party had entered in the row within the party over the same issue. But it is possible that Jaitly’s insistence on ethics could be on long term consequences. Besides the acceptance of Advani as the present leader, there is a feeling within the party to hunt for the second lead of leadership post-Advani. Narendra Modi is a potential candidate for this job with Arun Jaitly backing him, but pan-party acceptance is an issue. If BJP fails in the present elections, it would just speed up the churning process.

But looking at the present scenario the churning is not going to be a smooth process for the party.

Thrown to the wolves

The article tries to sympathize with Varun Gandhi on his innocence of his speech which, the author believes, were given out of his passion for his work and only the reflection of the ideologies his party has followed for decades.

While so many others before him have made careers out of such speeches, the poor boy was made victim for the same thing by EC notices and criminal FIRs and CDs and video recordings and what not. And all the more as a reaction to the issue, he was made to take a stand of “what’d I do wrong???” It seemed that he has become a part of greater conspiracy since he has been victimized for things that people before him has been saying for decades and even more forcefully. His attempt might just be to get the crowd into some enthusiasm and moving. What he said was just the ideology his party has been following since its inception and nothing more. 

Finally, author urges people to just pretend the case as just a youthful passion at work and give a second chance to the boy.